The Resurrection is the best explanation of the minimal facts
The claim
Five facts are conceded by virtually all New Testament historians, including skeptical ones: Jesus died by crucifixion, his disciples believed they saw him alive, Paul's life was changed by what he believed was an appearance, James was converted by what he believed was an appearance, and the tomb was empty.
Naturalist alternatives — hallucination, conspiracy, legend, swoon, wrong tomb — each fail on at least one fact. The Resurrection accounts for all five. By the standard historiographical criterion of inference to the best explanation, it wins.
Second-Temple Judaism had no category for this.
In first-century Jewish thought, 'resurrection' meant the bodily raising of all the righteous at the end of history. No one expected one man to be raised in the middle. No one expected a crucified Messiah at all — crucifixion was a sign of God's curse.
What the disciples claimed required them to invent two new categories simultaneously, against the grain of every expectation they held. The simplest explanation of this innovation is that it happened.
And the movement they founded grew explosively in the very city where the body could be produced. It was not.