The Resurrection is the best explanation of the minimal facts
The claim
Five facts are conceded by virtually all New Testament historians, including skeptical ones: Jesus died by crucifixion, his disciples believed they saw him alive, Paul's life was changed by what he believed was an appearance, James was converted by what he believed was an appearance, and the tomb was empty.
Naturalist alternatives — hallucination, conspiracy, legend, swoon, wrong tomb — each fail on at least one fact. The Resurrection accounts for all five. By the standard historiographical criterion of inference to the best explanation, it wins.
Five facts. One explanation.
1. Jesus died by Roman crucifixion. Conceded by every serious historian. The swoon theory was abandoned in the 19th century.
2. The disciples had real experiences they believed were appearances of the risen Jesus. Conceded — even Bart Ehrman concedes this. Hallucination theories fail because group hallucinations of the same content do not occur and would not include physical eating.
3. Paul, persecutor of the church, was converted by what he believed was an appearance. He had no incentive to lie; he died for the testimony.
4. James, Jesus' skeptical brother, became a leader of the Jerusalem church on the basis of an appearance. Same dynamic.
5. The tomb was empty. Otherwise the Jewish authorities, with motive and access, would have produced the body.
Each naturalist alternative fails on at least one of these. The Resurrection explains all five.